Day: April 8, 2023

Delegations from Syria, Iran and Türkiye met in Moscow with their counterparts this week to discuss the normalization of ties between Türkiye and Syria. It’s the prelude to a higher-level meeting that will take place later this month.

Improved cooperation would be particularly important in bringing a close to the ongoing Syrian conflict, as Ankara and Damascus share a long border and frozen relations since the beginning of the war.

Syrian officials had said their delegates would focus on ending Türkiye’s military presence in their country, cooperating in fighting against terrorism, and non-interference in Syria’s internal affairs by other countries. The meeting is the latest in a series of steps, heavily backed by Moscow, towards reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus after an 11-year break in relations. Similarly, these negotiations follow a reconciliation between perennial regional adversaries Iran and Saudi Arabia recently brokered by China.

For Syria, Damascus wants to reclaim its territory held by Kurdish-backed forces in the country’s north and northeastern sectors. They also don’t want the potential for a Turkish invasion of their country in case the security situation becomes delicate. For its part, Türkiye is concerned with the presence of the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG), which Ankara associates with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

US continues to use terrorists in Syria – Russia

While most Western countries consider the YPG a normal paramilitary outfit (which, incidentally, comprises the bulk of the anti-Assad Syrian Democratic Forces), the PKK is designated as a terrorist organization by a number of key Western players, including the US and the EU. Türkiye, meanwhile, views both as terrorist groups and sees the YPG as, essentially, the PKK’s Syrian wing. This assessment is supported by the US director of National Intelligence in a 2018 report, as well by sources on the ground, including foreign mercenaries who fought in Syria alongside Kurdish forces, who have told me the two groups are virtually interchangeable and routinely swap soldiers.

The Turkish desire to quell Kurdish movements on the Turkish-Syrian border is both understandable and a point of mutual agreement for both parties. It could also help Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his upcoming election, giving him a boost for quelling a terrorist threat and improving cooperation with his neighbor.

In terms of how this will close out the war, the obvious outstanding issue is the remaining US bases and troops in Syria, which are stationed in the country in violation of international law and the very military authorization they are acting under. The latter point was even stated by the former US ambassador to Syria and one-time advocate of supporting the Syrian opposition against Assad, Robert Ford. Consequently, losing ground support from Kurdish militants along the Syrian-Turkish border, where US troops had previously been stationed, will weaken the position of the forces still stationed in Syria’s eastern section.

Russia hosts high-level Türkiye-Syria meeting

It is hoped that the thawing of Syria-Türkiye animosities will usher an end to foreign meddling in Syria, including the occupation of its oil-rich regions by US forces. Given that Türkiye is a powerful US military ally in the region and was a major staging point for US military support to anti-Assad militant groups, this would undermine Washington’s logistical, strategic and diplomatic abilities to interfere in Damascus’ internal affairs. It would also help integrate Syria back into the Middle East and global communities.

Indeed, Saudi Arabia recently announced plans to invite the Syrian president to the next Arab League summit in Riyadh in May. This is a major signal that Syria’s decade-long exclusion from the Arab community, at the behest of Washington, is coming to an end. It may help continue the regional integration of the Middle East despite foreign meddling and attempts at division.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once famously remarked that “the new Europe will be the Middle East.” In 2018, he said that in the next five years (i.e. now) his country would be “totally different” and that other Middle East countries would also be different, pointing to increasing economic development and what he predicted would be a regional renaissance in the next 30 years.

However, to truly be “the new Europe” would require much deeper political integration for the whole region. At the same time, it is important to note that the foundations of the European Union, before open borders and a common political framework, were based on economic development and win-win cooperation.

In a similar vein, a successful thaw in Türkiye-Syria ties along the lines of mutual cooperation and common security, in the context of deeper cooperation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, could lead to the eventual outcome of a politically integrated Middle East. With the backing of major powers like China and Russia, which maintain a comprehensive strategic partnership rooted in respect for international law, this is an achievable goal in spite of any ideological and religious differences.

One thing leads to another, we say. And greater cooperation in development, security, and trade can lay the foundations for a more closely integrated Middle East. It can even lead to MBS’ dream of a regional renaissance, long plagued by conflict fanned by outsiders, who only seek to pillage the bountiful heritage and resources of Middle East nations.

Source: Russia Today

Established in Russian-occupied Crimea in 2022, the Convoy militia is getting increasing publicity on social media as it recruits fighters. The rise of the new Russian militia comes as the Kremlin is trying to encourage the emergence of other mercenary groups to compete with Wagner, which has become too powerful for the Russian defence establishment, according to Western intelligence reports.

On April 4, two days after a Russian ultranationalist blogger with links to the Wagner Group militia was killed in St Petersburg, British military intelligence published a new warning on its Twitter account.

“Russia is likely seeking to sponsor and develop alternative private military companies (PMCs) to eventually replace the Wagner Group PMC in its significant combat role in Ukraine,” said the British defence intelligence daily briefing.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 4 April 2023.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/oUYAi2Vhia

???? #StandWithUkraine ???? pic.twitter.com/a485dL48wL

— Ministry of Defence ???? (@DefenceHQ) April 4, 2023

It was an early official alert on the latest development in a conflict that has entered its second year following the February 24, 2022 full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the British intelligence update did not name any new militias, Russian investigative journalists in exile were already on the job, identifying a new mercenary group emerging from Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that fell under Moscow’s control in 2014.

“PMC ‘Convoy’ is a relatively new private military unit. Its Telegram channel, under the same name, was created in November last year,” noted iStories (Important Stories), a Latvia-based investigative news website founded by a group of award-winning Russian journalists in exile.

The creation of the Convoy militia group comes amid increasing reports of Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin running afoul of the Kremlin old guard following his frequent rants against the Russian defence establishment’s handling of the Ukraine conflict.

The killing of Russian ultranationalist blogger Maxim Fomin – better known by his nom de guerre “Vladen Tartarsky” – in a St Petersburg café exposed the growing security risks within Russia. The arming of private citizens under civilian bosses to wage war in Ukraine has threatened the Russian state’s monopoly on violence, and the rise of a new mercenary group could be a chilling portent for Russia’s national security.

Businessmen, politicians and militia bosses

While the Wagner Group has played a central role in Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine, Convoy has gained visibility in recent weeks and could become a new subcontractor in the Kremlin’s war against Kyiv.

The man at the heart of the new militia group is Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the Kremlin-backed administration in Crimea. Born in 1972 in Moldovia while it was a Soviet republic, Aksyonov was a businessman suspected of links to organised crime. In 2014, shortly after the Russian annexation of Crimea, Aksyonov – sometimes called “Goblin” after his gangster nickname – suddenly shot to fame when Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed him head of the new administration in the peninsula.

Following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Aksyonov created the Convoy militia late last year, according to iStories. The report included photographs of Aksyonov, dressed in a khaki-coloured chino-parka ensemble, “consulting on Convoy positions” in Crimea.

It was not an unusual development for Russia, according to Lukas Aubin, research director at the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS). “In Russia, private militias are not a novelty. Besides Yevgeny Prigozhin, who created Wagner in 2014, we also have the militia of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. These ‘entrepreneurs of influence’ – politicians or oligarchs – support the regime and spread their influence and that of Russia internationally,” noted Aubin.

Details about the organisational structure and working of the new militia are still sketchy. On its Telegram profile, Convoy recently launched several recruitment campaigns to expand its ranks. An early estimate put the number of Convoy militia fighters at 300, according to iStories, and they are operating in Crimea and the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson.

According to a former Convoy member interviewed by iStories, the enlisted men sign two contracts: one with Convoy and another with the Russian ministry of defence. Each fighter earns around $2,500 a month. Those who serve for a full year are also promised land in Crimea or Abkhazia, a Russian-occupied Georgian territory.

A Wagner rival or ally?

It is difficult to gauge at this stage what role Convoy might play in Ukraine while Wagner is still grabbing all available resources and media attention. But its emergence comes as Wagner’s mercenaries struggle to overcome Ukrainian resistance in Bakhmut amid consistent reports of the Kremlin trying to reduce the Prigozhin militia’s “dominant role” in the war.

With an estimated 50,000 active fighters in Ukraine in mid-December, the majority of them recruited from Russian prisons, Wagner appears to be an indispensable auxiliary to the Russian army, which desperately needs new recruits as Kyiv prepares for a major counteroffensive.

There are no signs so far of a budding rivalry between the two militia groups. For one, relations between Aksyonov and Prigozhin appear to be excellent. A few months ago, Aksyonov threatened to apply the death penalty to Russian officials who were reluctant to send ammunition to Wagner militiamen. His initiative was warmly welcomed by Prigozhin.

Moreover, Convoy’s military commander is a close associate of Prigozhin, according to a report by investigative website Bellingcat. Konstantin Pikalov – aka “Mazay” – is none other than Prigozhin’s former right-hand man and was a key figure in the Wagner Group’s activities in the Central African Republic.

“It is not known today whether the two men are in conflict. Nevertheless, this multiplication of private armed groups shows that there are dissensions within Russian power circles,” noted Aubin. “The Russian government doesn’t really have a choice anymore anyway. The army is in a difficult position and these militias appear as alternatives”.

The two militias could coexist perfectly well as long as they serve the interests of the Kremlin. “Putin’s power is an opportunistic power where all means are welcome,” said Aubin. “Having powerful militiamen on his side is an asset, even if it’s a situation that may seem unstable.”

Source: France24.com

On this episode of Direct Impact, host Rick Sanchez heads south to Peru, a country racked by violent protests since the abrupt impeachment of left-wing President Pedro Castillo. Rick was joined by journalist Camila Escalante, who broke down the upheaval in Peru and discussed whether or not a foreign-led coup paved the way for Castillo’s demise, just a year after he was elected.

Source: Russia Today

There are enough questions about the John F. Kennedy assassination to fill a library. Countless books have been written on the subject, and many of them have only served to make the issue murkier, rather than to clearing up some of the myriad questions surrounding the case. Every five to ten years, Congress demands the CIA declassify and release a tranche of documents related to the assassination, and with great hope among the public that more light will be shed on one of the most infamous crimes in American history, we are invariably disappointed. On this episode of The Whistleblowers, John Kiriakou sits down with an investigative journalist who specializes in the JFK assassination and the alleged US government and CIA coverup, Jefferson Morley, to discuss what really happened to JFK.

Source: Russia Today

On this episode of Going Underground, we speak to Carl Zha, host of the Silk and Steel podcast and renowned commentator on Chinese affairs. He discusses Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen’s visit to the US and attempts by American lawmakers to make Taiwan an independent nation, the prospect of war between China and Taiwan with US intervention, French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping, China’s position on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its proposed peace plan, why the US is unlikely to win a conventional war against China, and much more.

Source: Russia Today

Foreign companies in non-food retail that withdrew from Russia or halted operations in the country during the past year have missed out on roughly $2 billion in profits, business daily Kommersant reported on Thursday, citing consultants who assisted with the exit of several businesses.

According to the news outlet, losses for companies that sold their Russian assets and quit the country entirely amounted to $1.3-1.5 billion. Among the biggest losers were Swedish furniture giant IKEA, which lost roughly $400 million, and clothing brand HandM, which lost some $363 million.

Spanish clothing conglomerate Inditex, the owner of brands such as Zara, Bershka, and Massimo Dutti, suffered about $300 million in losses. French sporting goods retailer Decathlon endured losses of around $140 million, while luxury Italian retailer Moncler and French counterpart Hermes jointly lost around $200 million.

Among the companies which have suspended their activities in Russia but have not yet finalized their intentions to leave, losses were estimated at $500-$700 million. Japanese clothing manufacturer Uniqlo could suffer the most, sources told Kommersant, given that the company had seen Russia sales grow exponentially in recent years, reaching 26.9 billion rubles ($333 million) in revenue in 2021, up 35% compared to 2020 and 38% compared to 2019.

Companies that have exited Russia in the past year have largely linked their decisions to Western sanctions, which have made it difficult to continue operations due to logistics and supply chain problems.

While sanctions have formally had almost no effect on non-food retail, with the exception of luxury goods, numerous brands have said they feared for their public image or faced difficulties organizing their operations under financial restrictions.

Loss of Western brands is Russia’s gain – Putin

Experts note that many of the brands that left the Russian market did not consider the country a priority. According to Dmitry Vodyannikov from consultancy firm Yakov and Partners, the Russian market provided most of the brands in the segment with only 3-5% of their global revenues.

Overall, according to calculations by the Center for Strategic Research (CSR), as of October last year, foreign companies of all types that have restricted their activities in Russia or announced their withdrawal had lost $200-240 billion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that companies that quit Russia had left behind a “good legacy,” and vowed not to let their various assets and infrastructure go to waste.

“Our companies, our entrepreneurs are picking up these enterprises and businesses and continuing this work. And quite successfully,” Putin said at a meeting with the Agency for Strategic Initiatives in February.

Source: Russia Today