Nicosia: The University of Nicosia, in collaboration with Rouen University in Normandy and the Geological Survey Department, has concluded a four-year project analyzing the impact of climate change on Cypriot society and landscape. This project is part of an ongoing relationship with a group of speleologists, geologists, and health geographers.
According to Cyprus News Agency, the study, conducted under the HIGH-PASM project, aimed to compare long-term climate variability with historical records from the last millennium. The researchers focused on understanding how climate changes affected societal events such as famine outbreaks, plagues, and locust waves in Cyprus, covering periods from the late Lusignan’s to the Early British colonial era.
A key component of the study involved analyzing an 8 cm-high stalagmite from the Hot cave in Cyprus, which provided a climate record dating back to 1338 CE. Geochemical analyses of the stalagmite allowed researchers to reconstruct the climate signals over the past 700 years and compare them to historical records. Similar analyses were conducted in Varathron Cave in the Akamas Peninsula, yielding comparable results.
Statistical analyses were performed on the reconstructed climate signals, focusing on oxygen and carbon isotopes, to evaluate humid and dry periods. The study compiled 875 recorded events from various historical sources and compared them using statistical methods to assess the correlation between natural climate data and historical societal events.
The results indicated that long dry periods occurred before the 16th century, whereas long wet periods were prevalent from the 16th to the end of the 18th century. The early 19th century saw a return to dry conditions, followed by alternating dry and wet periods until 2000 CE. A persistent dry period has been noted since the 21st century.
The study found a significant correlation between the occurrence of locust waves and famines, with 36% occurring within the same year. Plagues and locust waves did not show significant synchronicity. Analyses revealed that all three events-locust waves, plagues, and famines-occurred during wet and non-volatile periods, although famines also frequently occurred during dry conditions.
These findings provide valuable insights into the relationship between climate variability and historical societal events in Cyprus, highlighting how certain climatic conditions can influence ecological and societal outcomes.