Nicosia: The Eastern Mediterranean region is anticipated to receive an increase in rainfall from January 26 to February 20, as projected by the Climate Watch Advisory Group of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These forecasts, shared by the Cyprus Department of Meteorology, provide temporary hope for improved hydrological conditions in Cyprus amid ongoing drought concerns.
According to Cyprus News Agency, while the forecast suggests a rise in rainfall above normal values, Cyprus continues to face significant hydrological challenges. Despite the potential for temporary improvements in soil moisture and water conditions, the prolonged drought has left water reserves in the island's dams alarmingly low. The anticipated rainfall is unlikely to substantially alter the current situation or significantly replenish the reserves.
The Eastern Mediterranean is expected to continue experiencing reduced rainfall in the future, exacerbating water scarcity issues. Given these circumstances, the necessity for rational and limited water use is emphasized.
Over the coming four weeks, increased precipitation compared to seasonal norms is expected across much of the Mediterranean, affecting Cyprus, Greece, western and southwestern Turkey, and parts of the central and western Mediterranean. Weekly rainfall in the Eastern Mediterranean is projected to range from 25 to 100 millimeters, with potential for higher local amounts. Anomalies in weekly precipitation are anticipated to be between +10 to +50 millimeters, with possible larger deviations.
For Cyprus, these conditions could lead to increased surface runoff and temporary enhancements in soil moisture and hydrological conditions. Localized heavy rainfall in short periods cannot be ruled out.
The forecast also encompasses regions such as Italy, Malta, western and southern France, Spain, Portugal, and other parts of the central and western Mediterranean. During January 16-22, Cyprus received nearly 20 millimeters of additional rainfall beyond the expected amount for that period.
Prevailing atmospheric patterns are likely to maintain wetter-than-normal conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus, with a higher frequency of rain episodes due to successive barometric lows and frontal systems over the next four weeks.