Day: May 16, 2022

Foreign Minister Ioannis Kasoulides underlined the need to speed up the enlargement process in order to prevent the Western Balkans from becoming vulnerable to the influence of third countries such as Russia, China and Turkey, speaking during a discussion with the Foreign Ministers of the countries concerned, in the framework of the Foreign Affairs Council held in Brussels on Monday.

In particular, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, Kasoulides stressed that the political instability caused by the crisis in Ukraine, combined with the growing influence of third countries in the Western Balkans, should cause particular concern.

The EU, he said, “must accelerate the enlargement process and support our partners in the Western Balkans in order to preserve its own credibility and avoid making the region more vulnerable to the influence of third countries such as Russia, China and Turkey,” according to the Foreign Ministry statement.

The Foreign Ministers of the EU exchanged views on the Western Balkans and examined ways to strengthen EU political engagement in individual sectors. They also took part in a working lunch with their counterparts from Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania.

They also reviewed the latest developments in Ukraine in the light of the ongoing Russian invasion in the presence of the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine and Canada.

Prior to the beginning of the FAC, the EU’s Foreign Ministers participated in a EU – Canada ministerial meeting in the presence of Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly.

During the EU – Canada ministerial meeting, Kasoulides said that the reshaping of the security architecture in Europe is of vital importance and that Cyprus supports the strengthening of EU – NATO cooperation in a way that is mutually beneficial, based on the principles of reciprocity and autonomy of decision-making.

Referring to cooperation with Canada, the Cypriot Foreign Minister referred to Canada’s long-standing contribution to civilian and military missions in the framework of the European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and Canada’s participation in the military mobility programme in the framework of the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).

Also, in the context of the discussion of current affairs, Greece provided an update on Turkish violations of Greek airspace, with Cyprus supporting Greece’s positions, according to the statement.

On the sidelines of the Foreign Affairs Council, Kasoulides also held a bilateral meeting with Serbian Foreign Minister, Nikola Selakovic.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades has convened a meeting with the participation of pertinent Ministers, in order to think about measures to mitigate or deal with the consequences of the new international crisis, next Friday, at 11 am, at the Presidential Palace.

In a written statement on Monday, Government Spokesperson, Marios Pelekanos, said that the government understands the interest and suggestions of parties and social partners, about the phenomena resulting from the global economic crisis, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the expected consequences of the sanctions taken against Russia.

“This is a new global economic crisis that all countries are called upon to face,” he said, adding that “once again, Cyprus is called on to bear the burden of the consequences as far as the Cypriot economy is concerned.”

“With a full sense of responsibility and always based on the public fiscal data, the government has already adopted, but also wants to assure the Cypriot people that it will continue to adopt, a series of measures to mitigate the consequences,” Pelekanos noted.

For this purpose, President Anastasiades has convened next Friday, at 11:00, at the Presidential Palace, a meeting in the presence of pertinent Ministers, in order to study measures to mitigate and / or address the consequences of the new international crisis, he concluded.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

One in five Cypriots is hypertensive, while 19.8% of adults in the country suffer from high blood pressure, according to the results of the report of the “European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Statistics 2021”, which were presented on Monday during a press conference.

According to the results of the report of the “European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Statistics 2021”, 25% of adults suffer from hypertension, with the percentage in some member countries of the European Society of Cardiology being 32.4%.

The same report also states that the corresponding rate in Cyprus is 19.8%, i.e. one in five citizens is hypertensive, while it is adds that hypertension is more common in men with a rate of 26.5%, compared to women with 22.3%.

President of the Cyprus Society of Cardiology, Dr. Theodoros Christodoulides, said that international research shows that the incidence of hypertension has increased in the last four decades, leading to an increased number of deaths.

This fact, he pointed out, stresses the need to apply preventive measures, as well as the use of medication by people with high blood pressure.

At the same time, he urged the public to measure their blood pressure at every opportunity and especially in every contact with health professionals, emphasising that blood pressure is increased if the systolic blood pressure is greater than 140 and / or the diastolic blood pressure is greater than 90.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

Let me begin with the five key messages emerging from this forecast:

First, compared to our Winter Forecast, published two weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, growth in the EU economy is revised lower, and inflation higher.

We now forecast the EU economy to grow by 2.7% this year before slowing further to 2.3% in 2023. For 2022, this is 1.3 percentage points lower than projected in February, one of the steepest downgrades between forecasts of recent years. Annual inflation is expected to hit an all-time high of 6.8% this year, and to fall to 3.2% in 2023.

Second, the war has clearly exacerbated the headwinds that were previously expected to gradually fade. These include the sharp rise in commodity prices and the aggravation of existing supply-side disruptions, as well as the emergence of new ones, for instance in transport and logistics.

Third, a strong and improving labour market, decreasing household saving rates, favourable financing conditions and the full deployment of the Recovery and Resilience Facility are set to support the economy.

Fourth, government deficits and debt ratios are forecast to decline this year and next. Governments are in the process of phasing out the COVID-19 emergency support measures and the cyclical rebound in revenues is in full swing.

The aggregate budget deficit in the EU should decline from 4.7% in 2021 to 2.5% in 2023.

The aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to continue on the downward trend, falling from 7% in the EU in 2021 (97.4% in the euro area) to 85.2% in 2023 (92.7% in the euro area).

And fifth, uncertainty around the outlook has clearly increased and risks have tilted to the downside and are predominantly related to the duration of the war. Given the unprecedented nature and size of the shocks affecting the EU economy, our forecast baseline is underpinned by several technical assumptions.

First, the extremely elevated geopolitical tensions are not expected to normalise before the end of the forecast horizon – these are our assumptions;

No major disruptions to the supply of energy commodities to the EU economy occur in the forecast horizon – again, this is the assumption (in line with the customary no-policy change assumption, as by the end of April which was the cut-off date of the forecast no such disruptions were observed).

Recognising elevated risks around this baseline, the forecast is accompanied by a model-based scenario analysis that simulates the impact of higher energy commodity prices as well as of an outright cut in gas supply from Russia. And I will come back to these model scenarios at the end.

Real growth projections for the EU this year and next have been revised down under the heavy impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Still, the European economy is expected to continue expanding as residual support from the post-pandemic re-opening and the strong policy response to the COVID-19 shock still support growth.

I am conscious that the growth projection for this year, 2.7%, may appear benign relative to the size of the shock generated by the war. However, out of this figure, as much as 2 pps is due to the exceptionally strong rebound of last year. Net of this so-called “carry-over effect”, within-year growth for 2022 has been cut from 2.1% to 0.8%.

In both 2022 and 2023, domestic demand is expected to keep driving growth. In particular, private consumption and investment are set to continue growing, albeit at a weaker pace than previously expected.

Both private consumption and investment are expected to be negatively affected by high inflation, uncertainty, and aggravated supply bottlenecks. At the same time, consumption should continue benefitting from the post-pandemic reopening momentum, a buoyant labour market, lower accumulation of savings and fiscal measures to offset rising energy. Investment is set to be supported by the full deployment of the RRF and the implementation of the accompanying reforms.

Finally, net exports are projected to provide only a marginal positive contribution to growth, as both export and import volumes slow down.

Inflation has been picking up momentum since early 2021. In the euro area, it rose from 4.6% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2021 to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2022, and then further up to 7.5% in April. This is the highest rate in the history of our monetary union.

This acceleration has been driven by the surge in commodity prices that lifted energy and food price inflation to multi-year highs. At the same time, inflationary pressures are broadening to other categories of goods and services. And this is well visible in the continued rise in core inflation, which eliminates energy and unprocessed foods.

Inflation is expected to peak at 6.9% in the euro area in the second quarter of this year, and gradually decline thereafter, largely reflecting the commodity price assumptions, which are derived from market futures. On an annual basis, inflation in the euro area is projected to reach 6.1% in 2022, before falling to 2.7% in 2023.

Core inflation is forecast to be above 3% in both 2022 and 2023, though falling gradually in 2023.

Recent inflation readings and the inflation outlook for the next two years differ widely across Member States. In 2022 inflation is expected to range from 4.4% in Portugal to 12.5% in Lithuania, with four Member States with inflation below 5% and five above 10%. In 2023 the range is expected to narrow considerably to between 1.8% (Spain) and 7.1% (Poland). Inflation expected in Central and Eastern Europe is visibly higher than in the rest of the EU.

Inflation differentials largely reflect dispersion in retail energy price developments, as well as the importance of energy and food in national consumer baskets.

The main hit to the EU economy comes through commodity markets, primarily surging prices of energy, but also food commodities. Sharply rising commodity prices are depressing household purchasing power and rising production costs for firms, while fuelling inflation.

The war is also weighing heavily on global activity and trade, reducing external demand for EU exports. First, directly, via the fall in trade with the region at war, but also through a major terms-of-trade shock, and exacerbating shortages and various supply-side bottlenecks.

Financial markets are also an important channel of impact. The war triggered a repricing of financial assets, tightening of financing conditions and increased prospects of accelerated normalisation of monetary policy.

Finally, the war has dramatically raised uncertainty and severely dented household and business confidence just as most of the EU was shaking off the pandemic blow.

Supply uncertainty in the aftermath of the war has brought renewed upward pressures on commodity prices. The increase was broad-based and affected metals, agricultural commodities, but predominantly fossil fuels – gas and oil.

Higher energy and food prices reduce households’ purchasing power, especially for lower-income families. This weighs on consumption and dampens domestic demand.

They also increase production input costs, raising producer price inflation across the economy. In the case of energy-intensive industries, this may lead to serious disruptions in the production process and result in shortages in certain markets.

It is important to stress that the forecast uses the indications coming from markets’ futures curves to project developments of commodity prices and does not factor in large-scale interruptions in their supply.

The shockwaves of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are reverberating globally. The direct impact is related to the collapse of activity and trade across the Eastern neighbourhood of the EU. Indirectly, negative spillovers to global demand come from the surge in commodity prices, disruptions in the supply of raw materials and intermediate inputs, aggravated transport bottlenecks and tightening financing conditions.

Lockdowns in parts of China further weaken the outlook for emerging Asia, with global ramifications through amplified disruptions to logistics and value chains.

Reflecting these headwinds, the growth forecast for the global economy in 2022 has been downgraded by 1.3 percentage points compared to the Autumn Forecast. So global GDP is now expected to expand by 3.2% in 2022 before picking up to 3.5% in 2023.

Global trade has been revised down even more. Following a very strong rebound in 2021, the volume of global imports of goods and services is now forecast to grow by 4.9% and 4.4% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. This is 1.5 percentage points lower than in the Autumn for this year.

The labour market entered 2022 on a strong footing. The EU economy last year created more than 5.2 million jobs and attracted nearly 3.5 million more people into the labour market. In addition, unemployment at the end of 2021 fell below previous record lows.

Employment in the EU is projected to grow by 1.2% this year, though here, too, the annual growth rate is lifted by the strong momentum in the second half of last year. People fleeing the war in Ukraine to the EU are expected to enter labour markets only gradually, with tangible effects only from next year.

Unemployment rates are forecast to decline further, to 6.7% this year and 6.5% in 2023 in the EU. In the euro area, unemployment is projected at 7.3% in 2022 and 7.0% in 2023.

This good employment news is tempered by the fact that in 2022, purchasing power is set to decline in real terms, as wages are not projected to keep up with inflation.

An additional tailwind to growth will come from the decline in the household savings rate. Following a large accumulation of savings during the pandemic, households are now expected to devote more of their disposable income to consumption.

Public investment is expected to increase over the forecast horizon, driven by EU funds and in particular by the Recovery and Resilience facility.

Beyond public investment, RRF grants are largely used to cover capital transfers and current expenditures. The total projected absorption up to the end of 2023 amounts to some 1.3% of EU GDP.

All EU economies are expected to continue growing over the forecast horizon. Following the uneven rebound from the COVID-19 crisis, the effects of the war in Ukraine have extended the list of factors explaining uneven growth outcomes. Seven Member States, including Germany, Spain and Italy, had not reached their pre-pandemic output level by the end of last year.

A few words now on the largest EU economies.

The fallout of the war in Ukraine and COVID-19-related lockdowns in some of China’s industrial hubs are hampering economic activity in Germany. Following subdued growth at the beginning of this year, Germany’s GDP is expected to slightly contract in the second quarter. The German economy is expected to return to growth in the third quarter. Overall, real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year and by 2.4% the next.

In France, following stagnation in the first quarter, GDP is expected to increase in the second. Services are set to benefit from the full easing of sanitary restrictions while industry shows signs of resilience. Real GDP in France is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2022 and by 1.8% in 2023.

For Italy, the short-term outlook remains subdued, as the war has dented economic sentiment and exacerbated existing obstacles to growth. Still, real GDP is projected to increase by 2.4% this year. Next year, growth is forecast at 1.9% in 2023, supported by RRF-financed investment.

Spain is forecast to maintain strong growth this year, although the momentum should ease markedly in the second quarter. RRF investments and the recovery of tourism are set to support growth. Real GDP is projected to grow by 4% in 2022 before easing to 3.4% in 2023.

Lastly, Poland entered 2022 on a strong economic footing. A fall in sentiment, a collapse in trade with Russia and Ukraine, and increased inflation weighing on purchasing power are set to decelerate growth in the short term. Overall, the economy is forecast to grow by 3.7% in 2022 and 3% in 2023.

The general government deficit in the EU is forecast to fall from 4.7% of GDP in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and further down to 2.5% in 2023. This trend reflects the unwinding of fiscal measures taken in response to COVID-19 and improvements in the cyclical components of the budget.

The number of countries with a deficit exceeding 3% of GDP fell to 15 in 2021. Under the no-policy change scenario, it is projected to rise to 17 in 2022, before falling back to 11 in 2023.

The additional costs in 2022 related to measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices (0.6% of GDP for the EU) and to deal with the humanitarian crisis provoked by Russia (0.1% of GDP) are not – at the moment – enough to outweigh these factors. At the moment we factor in what was decided until the end of April.

Overall, these developments imply a supportive stance in 2022, followed by normalisation in 2023.

The debt-to-GDP ratio for the EU as a whole is set to decline from 89.7% of GDP in 2021 to 85.2%in 2023.

Risks related to the unpredictable evolution of the war and of energy markets dominate the risk balance. This motivates the model-based scenario analysis that I will discuss in the next slide.

Strong inflationary pressures also come with increased risks to financing conditions, in the EU and globally. This includes a stronger-than-currently-expected rise in interest rates that could trigger a correction in the valuation of financial and non-financial (e.g. housing) assets, burden the banking sector and reduce the availability of credit. These are risks. The unwinding debt crisis in China’s real estate sector continues to pose domestic risks with large negative spillovers to the rest of the world.

A resurgence of the pandemic in Europe and outside also cannot be ruled out. This could cause new disruptions to the EU economy.

On the positive side, domestic demand could prove more resilient to increasing prices if households were to use more of their savings for consumption. Furthermore, investments fostered by the RRF could generate a stronger impulse to activity.

As mentioned earlier, our baseline forecast is accompanied by a model-based scenario analysis that simulates the impact of higher energy commodity prices – this is the adverse scenario – as well as of an outright cut in gas supply from Russia – this is the severe scenario.

In this latter, more severe scenario, GDP growth rates would be around 2.5 and 1 percentage point below the forecast baseline in 2022 and 2023, respectively, while inflation would increase by 3 percentage points in 2022 and more than 1 in 2023 above the baseline projection.

Under both of these scenarios, within-year growth would be in negative territory.

To conclude, Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is causing untold suffering and destruction, but is also weighing on Europe’s economic recovery.

Last year’s strong economic rebound will have a lingering positive effect on growth rates this year. But this should not detract from the impact that the war is having on our economies – even if the strong policy response deployed during the pandemic has boosted our resilience.

Our forecast is subject to very high uncertainty and risks, and other scenarios are possible under which growth may be lower and inflation higher than we are projecting today. In any case, our economy is still in a far from normal situation.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

The outlook for the EU economy before the outbreak of the war was for a prolonged and robust expansion. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has posed new challenges, just as the Union had recovered from the economic impacts of the pandemic. By exerting further upward pressures on commodity prices, causing renewed supply disruptions and increasing uncertainty, the war is exacerbating pre-existing headwinds to growth, which were previously expected to subside. This has led the European Commission to revise the EU’s growth outlook downwards, and the forecast for inflation upwards.

Slowdown in growth as war exacerbates pre-existing headwinds

EU GDP is projected to remain in positive territory over the forecast horizon, thanks to the combined effect of post-lockdown re-openings and the strong policy action taken to support growth during the pandemic. Namely, the post-pandemic re-opening of contact-intensive services, a strong and still improving labour market, lower accumulation of savings and fiscal measures to offset rising energy prices are set to support private consumption. Investment is set to benefit from the full deployment of the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the implementation of the accompanying reform agenda.

Real GDP growth in both the EU and the euro area is now expected at 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023, down from 4.0% and 2.8% (2.7% in the euro area), respectively, in the Winter 2022 interim Forecast. The downgrade for 2022 must be read against the background of the growth momentum gathered by the economy in spring and summer last year, which adds around 2 percentage points to the annual growth rate for this year. Output growth within the year has been reduced from 2.1% to 0.8%.

The main hit to the global and EU economies comes through energy commodity prices. Although they had already increased substantially before the war, from the low levels recorded during the pandemic, uncertainty about supply chains has pressured prices upwards, while increasing their volatility. This is true for food and other basic goods and services, with households’ purchasing power declining.

War-induced logistics and supply chain disruptions, as well as rising input costs for a broad array of raw materials, add to the disturbances in global trade caused by the drastic COVID-19 containment measures still applied in parts of China, weighing on production.

Energy prices drive inflation to record highs

Inflation has been picking up momentum since early 2021. From 4.6% year-on-year in the last quarter of 2021 it went up to 6.1% in the first quarter of 2022. Headline inflation in the euro area surged to 7.5% in April, the highest rate in the history of the monetary union.

Inflation in the euro area is projected at 6.1% in 2022, before falling to 2.7% in 2023. For 2022 as a whole, this represents a considerable upward revision compared to the Winter 2022 interim Forecast (3.5%). Inflation is expected to peak at 6.9% in the second quarter of this year and decline gradually thereafter. For the EU, inflation is expected to increase from 2.9% in 2021 to 6.8% in 2022, and fall back to 3.2% in 2023. Average core inflation is projected above 3% in 2022 and 2023 in both the EU and the euro area.

Strong and still improving labour market

The labour market is entering the new crisis on a strong footing. In 2021, more than 5.2 million jobs were created in the EU economy, which attracted nearly 3.5 million more people into the labour market. In addition, the number of unemployed decreased by nearly 1.8 million people. Unemployment rates at the end of 2021 fell below previous record lows.

Labour market conditions are expected to improve further. Employment in the EU is projected to grow by 1.2% this year, though this annual growth rate is spurred by the strong momentum in the second half of last year. People fleeing the war in Ukraine to the EU are expected to enter labour markets only gradually, with tangible effects only becoming visible from next year.

Unemployment rates are forecast to decline further, to 6.7% this year and 6.5% in 2023 in the EU and to 7.3% and 7.0% in 2022 and 2023 respectively in the euro area.

Government deficits continue declining but war-related costs rising

Despite the costs of measures to mitigate the impact of high energy prices and to support people fleeing Ukraine, the aggregate government deficit in the EU is set to decline further in 2022 and 2023 as temporary COVID-19 support measures continue to be withdrawn. From 4.7% of GDP in 2021, the deficit in the EU is forecast to fall to 3.6% of GDP in 2022 and 2.5% in 2023 (3.7% and 2.5% in the euro area).

After decreasing in 2021 to around 90% (97% in the euro area) from the historic peak of almost 92% of GDP in 2020 (almost 100% in the euro area), the aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio of the EU is forecast to decline to around 87% in 2022 and 85% in 2023 (95% and 93% in the euro area, respectively), remaining above the pre-COVID-19 level.

Uncertainty and risks depend on the evolution of the war

Risks to the forecast for economic activity and inflation are heavily dependent on the evolution of the war, and especially on its impact on energy markets.

Given the high uncertainty, the baseline forecast is accompanied by a model-based scenario analysis that simulates the impact of higher energy commodity prices, as well as of an outright cut in gas supply from Russia. In this latter, more severe scenario, GDP growth rates would be around 2.5 and 1 percentage points below the forecast baseline in 2022 and 2023, respectively, while inflation would increase by 3 percentage points in 2022 and by more than 1 in 2023, above the baseline projection.

On top of such potential disruptions in energy supply, worse than expected problems in supply chains and further increases in non-energy commodity prices, especially food, could lead to additional downward pressures on growth, and upward pressures on prices. Greater than expected second round effects in the face of an imported inflationary shock could compound stagflationary forces. Strong inflationary pressures also come with increased risks to financing conditions. Finally, COVID-19 remains a risk factor.

Beyond these immediate risks, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is leading to an economic decoupling of the EU from Russia, with consequences that are difficult to fully apprehend at this stage.

Members of the College said:

Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President for an Economy that Works for People said: “There is no doubt that the EU economy is going through a challenging period due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, and we have downgraded our forecast accordingly. The overwhelming negative factor is the surge in energy prices, driving inflation to record highs and putting a strain on European businesses and households. While growth will continue this year and next, it will be much more subdued than previously expected. Uncertainty and risks to the outlook will remain high as long as Russia’s aggression continues. But there are some positives that allow us to weather this crisis. Our economic fundamentals are solid: before this war started, the EU economy had embarked on a path of strong recovery and growth. More jobs are being created in the EU economy, attracting more people into the labour market and keeping unemployment low. And as Member States put their recovery and resilience plans into full effect, this will provide a much-needed boost to our economic strength.”

Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economy said: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing untold suffering and destruction, but is also weighing on Europe’s economic recovery. The war has led to a surge in energy prices and further disrupted supply chains, so that inflation is now set to remain higher for longer. Last year’s strong economic rebound will have a lingering positive effect on growth rates this year. A strong labour market, post-pandemic reopening and NextGenerationEU should provide further support to our economies and help to drive public debt and deficits lower. This forecast is however subject to high uncertainty and risks that are closely linked to the development of Russia’s war. Other scenarios are possible under which growth may be lower and inflation higher than we are projecting today.”

Background

This forecast is based on a set of technical assumptions concerning exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices with a cut-off date of 29 April. For all other incoming data, including assumptions about government policies, this forecast takes into consideration information up until, and including, 29 April. Unless new policies are announced and specified in adequate detail, the projections assume no policy changes.

The European Commission publishes two comprehensive forecasts (spring and autumn) and two interim forecasts (winter and summer) each year. The interim forecasts cover annual and quarterly GDP and inflation for the current and following year for all Member States, as well as EU and euro area aggregates.

The European Commission’s Summer 2022 Economic Forecast will update GDP and inflation projections and is expected to be presented in July 2022.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

The European Commission revised its economic projections downward for Cyprus citing the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the associated sanctions against Moscow on the island’s tourist and services sector.

In its spring forecasts, issued on Monday, the European Commission said that the Cypriot GDP growth will slow down to 2.3% in 2022, which is 1.8% less than its previous projections, while growth will accelerate to 3.5% the following year, in line with the previous projection issued in February 2022.

“The Cypriot economy started 2022 on a strong footing, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the related sanctions are expected to impact economic activity, especially tourism and services exports, as Russia is an important market for both,” the European Commission said in its forecast for Cyprus.

Moreover, the EU Commission said that headline inflation (HICP) will register a considerable increase, reaching to 5.2% in 2022, doubling its previous projection of 2.6%, and is projected to decline to 2.7% the following year, which is significantly higher than the previous estimate.

“This is mainly due to exceptionally high oil prices, as Cyprus depends heavily on oil products. The prices of non-energy industrial products and food have also increased as a result of supply chain disruptions and the secondary impact from higher energy prices,” the Commission added.

According to the Commission, unemployment rate remained broadly stable in 2021 at 7.5%. Employment and vacancies were on the rise at the end of 2021, whereas the slowdown of economic activity “is set to put brakes on the labour market later this year.”

In 2022, unemployment is forecast to somewhat increase to 7.8%, before resuming its decreasing trend in 2023 to 7.3%, the Commission added.

The Commission however, noted that “significant uncertainty and downside risks to the growth outlook remain, as the tourism sector and other export-oriented services sectors are particularly vulnerable to external shocks.”

Furthermore, the Commission despite the economic slowdown projects that Cyprus fiscal deficit will continue to improve, as the government phases off its pandemic related support measures.

In 2022, the deficit is expected to further improve to 0.3% of GDP and will improve marginally to 0.2% in 2023.

Public debt, after its decline to 103.6% of GDP in 2021 on the back of high nominal GDP growth and thanks to cash reserves accumulated in the previous year, is expected to decrease to 93.9% and 88.8% in 2022 and 2023, respectively, the Commission added.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

Apollon of Limassol celebrates the 4th title of the Cyprus Football League during the 68 years of its history.

After 16 years, the club’s fans and the members of the team, celebrated from the final whistle of the referee until the early hour of Monday. Celebrations started in Tsirio Stadium and continued in the streets of Limassol and mainly in the roundabout of Agios Nikolaos, where thousands of Apollon fans created a festive atmosphere with fireworks and cheering.

Apollon won the championship in the seasons 1990-91, 1993-94 and 2005-06 seasons.

The team of Limassol was not the most effective in the 2nd Phase of the Championship. While entering the second phase in the first place of the standings, 7 points ahead of the second team, until Match Day 7 it managed to have seven draws in a raw.

Apollon entered the play offs phase with five consecutive draws, against Pafos, APOEL, Anorthosis, Aris and AEK. However, in the last two Match Days of the Championship, Apollon played as a champion and with two excellent games managed to beat APOEL and Aris in Match Day 8 and 9 respectively.

In the most decisive game of the season, the team of Limassol played as a true champion and took the derby against APOEL beating the team of Nicosia with 3-2 in Limassol. With that victory, the Blues of Limassol made the most decisive step towards the title of the championship.

In yesterday’s match, Apollon just needed the win against Aris. In a stadium full of enthusiastic fans the game just could not be lost. The “blues” were victorious with 4-1 and set up a title party, celebrating in the Stadium and in the streets of Limassol.

During this season, one game from the end, Apollon achieved 16 victories, had 10 draws and lost 5 times, from Pafos, Aris, Omonia and twice from AEK. Apollon drew 4 times with Anorthosis, 2 times with APOEL, once with PAEEK, once with Pafos, once with AEK and once with Aris.

The president of the Club, Nicos Kirzis, said after winning the title that “all these years we worked hard, we insisted and today we had redemption. Out of all teams Apollon was the best. The teamwork in Kolossi was unprecedented. Together we were all like a fist and a single voice,” he said.

He added that the fans were amazing in the last games. “It was a new team in the summer with a new coach. We did not start our course in Europe during Summer but in the end, we got back on our feet. We knew it was difficult. We managed and built up a difference from the other teams, this difference decreased and at the right time we showed after the match with Paphos what we had to show and we won this championship,” he said.

Alexander Zorniger, team’s head coach said it was a great day for everyone. “I am very proud to be the coach of Apollon. There was a lot of unnecessary pressure during the year”, he said and added: “I would like to thank the people and the players. I love this game. It was a difficult year for all of us,” he said.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

Cypriot researchers from the Cyprus Institute of Neurology and Genetics (CING), have made a new discovery on Multiple Sclerosis contributing to the identification of new biomarkers and evaluated their effect on the clinical picture of patients.

The research team of CING included Senior Consultant Neurologist, Head of Neurology Clinic C, Professor, The Cyprus School of Molecular Medicine Dr. Marios Pantzaris, Dr. Anastasia Lambrianides and Maria S. Hadjiagapiou, PhD Candidate, in collaboration with the Department of Molecular Virology, led by Professor Christina Christodoulou.

In the current study, 167 participants diagnosed with MS at the Neuroimmunology Department of the Cyprus Institute of Neurology and Genetics were enrolled during routine follow-up appointments between September 2017 and January 2019. Out of 167 patients with MS, 130 had Relapsing-Remitting MS (RRMS), 29 Secondary Progressive MS (SPMS) and seven Primary Progressive MS (PPMS) and one participant was diagnosed with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS).

It was funded by the TELETHON programme and the results were published in the international scientific journal Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders.

As the study notes, Multiple Sclerosis is a heterogeneous and multifactorial disease of the central nervous system (CNS), characterized by multifocal plaque formation within the CNS and the disruption of self-immune tolerance, thereby promoting a neurodegenerative and autoimmune phenotype.

Despite the in-depth research that has been conducted up to date, the etiology of MS is still elusive and no study has shed light on the development and progression of the disease. In addition, there are no previous studies to evaluate the relationship between antibodies against coagulant components and MS progression. To this date, numerous studies have investigated the above hypothesis in antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), but since both diseases share common clinical features, this should be investigated further in MS.

Therefore, the purpose of the study was to detect the seroprevalence of antibodies against procoagulant, anticoagulant, and fibrinolytic molecules in patients with MS and to determine whether these antibodies contribute to the progression and disability of the disease.

The presence of immunoglobulin G against serine proteases of the coagulation cascade was analyzed in patients with MS to test the team’s hypothesis that such antibodies might contribute to MS progression. A total of 43% showed significantly higher levels of IgG for at least one antibody. Furthermore, the findings indicated that patients had significantly elevated levels of binding activity to FVIIa, FXII and plasmin than healthy individuals. Noteworthy, the anti-FVIIa antibody was found to be an important marker for patients suffering from RRMS and SPMS in the study since the binding activity levels were significantly elevated in these groups. Moreover, the levels of anti-FXII could also differentiate RRMS patients from HCs, while patients with SPMS differed significantly from HCs in binding activity to plasmin. This observation was further extended with the correlation between anti-plasmin and EDSS as well as between anti-plasmin and age, demonstrating the implication of such antibodies in disease disability over time.

The findings of the study illustrate the presence of antibodies against serine proteases of the coagulation cascade in MS and demonstrate the association of antibody activity with disease progression. In particular, thrombin IgG seropositivity was demonstrated to be associated with worse outcomes and a severe disease phenotype. These observations suggest the implication of antibodies in patient monitoring and prognosis, and further evaluation may elucidate inflammatory cascades in which antibodies act as key mediators.

Overall, the IgG antibodies directed against serine proteases of the coagulation cascade illustrated an increased prevalence in patients with MS. Moreover, clinical features of the disease can also be associated with the presence of particular IgG antibodies against the coagulation serine proteases. Further studies are needed, the study suggests, to evaluate these molecules as part of the coagulation-inflammation circuit and their clinical significance in MS progression to assess whether they can contribute to better monitoring and prognosis of the disease as well as whether they can serve as targets for novel therapeutic strategies.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

After 16 years, Apollon of Limassol is celebrating the 4th title of the Cyprus football League in its history. Apollon beat Aris with score 4-1 and secured the title, whatever the results of Match Day 10 of the second phase of the Football League.

At the end of the match, the fans of Apollon, entered the stadium, and celebrated with the players, the coach and other members of the team the winning of the title.

Celebrations continued in the streets of Limassol and mainly in the roundabout of Agios Nikolaos, where thousands of Apollon fans created a festive atmosphere with fireworks and cheering

Shortly after 23:00, the football players and the coaching team, who arrived at the roundabout of Agios Nikolaos by bus, received a warm welcome, while the fiesta continued until the early morning hours.

Apollon will face at the last game of the season AEK of Larnaca next week.

Results of Match Day 9: Aris-Apollon 1-4, APOEL-Anorthosis 1-1, AEK-Paphos 2-0.

Standings: Apollon 58, APOEL 52, AEK 51, Anorthosis 49, Aris 47, Paphos 43.

Source: Cyprus News Agency

The Commission has today proposed targeted adjustments to the European Union’s financial rules, known as the Financial Regulation.

The main objective of the proposal is to align existing rules with the current long-term budget 2021-2027, and make further improvements to the already existing very high standards of EU financial rules, in view of developing an even more transparent, better protected and more agile budget.

Commissioner Johannes Hahn, in charge of Budget and Administration, said: “Today’s proposal seeks to grant certainty to EU funds’ recipients, while making the budget more responsive at times of crises and making budget management digital by default. Recent experiences have taught us that being prepared to address the unexpected makes a difference for all. I look forward to constructive discussions with the European Parliament and Member States in the Council in view of putting this rules into place promptly, and to the benefit of all.”

The main elements of today’s proposal seek to secure:

Increased transparency of the EU budget, by:

improving public information on the EU budget use and on the recipients of EU funding through an improved public database covering all methods of budget implementation,

reinforcing the effectiveness of control and audits with the mandatory collection of data on the recipients of EU funding including their beneficial owners,

using an integrated IT system for data-mining and risk-scoring in all methods of EU budget implementation to identify risks of irregularities, fraud, conflicts of interest, amongst others.

A better protected EU budget, by:

strengthening the Commission’s early detection and exclusion system, thus being able to identify EU funding recipients that are in breach of EU rules, and to exclude them from funding,

broadening the scope of this system to the shared management of budget implementation (where the Commission implements the budget together with the EU Member States), e.g. for funding from the European Regional Development Fund or under the Recovery and Resilience Facility,

updating the definition of conflict of interests, which gives grounds to reject participants from award procedures should conflict of interests be detected,

increasing efficiency and quality of controls and audits through digitalisation and the use of emerging technologies, in line with the Commission’s commitment to digital practices.

A more agile EU budget, by

providing a clear legal framework for procurement in crisis situations, for example by enabling the EU institutions to procure on behalf of the EU Member States or to act as a central purchasing body,

adding a new budget implementation instrument to ensure that the Commission can contribute to global initiatives (i.e. multi-donor activities, which involve pooling funds supporting global goals in areas such as climate change, education, fight against AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria).

Next steps

Today’s proposal will now be subject to negotiations by the European Parliament and EU Member States in the Council in view of a swift adoption. The Commission will work hand in hand with these two institutions to ensure that EU funds applicants and recipients can start benefiting from the new rules as soon as possible.

Background

The Financial Regulation sets out key rules for budget management, how EU funding is provided to beneficiaries, and how the EU institutions manage their own finances. It sets out rules on how the EU institutions procure works, supplies and services, award grants and prizes, and make use of financial instruments or budgetary guarantees.

In 2018, the EU financial rules went through a major revision, to bring them in line with the previous long-term budget 2014-2020 and to prepare for the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework. The 2018 Financial Regulation incorporated the previous Rules of Application into a “single rule book” allowing all general financial rules to be included in the Financial Regulation.

However, following the adoption of the 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and Union spending programmes, a further amendment was deemed necessary.

To that end, a public consultation was carried out in July-October 2021 and its feedback was carefully considered. Most of this feedback is duly reflected in today’s Commission proposal.

Source: Cyprus News Agency