Day: May 13, 2023

The relationship between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has seen its ups and downs. They have met face to face twice since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in early 2022; the first time was last June in Kyiv, long after other top politicians had visited there.

That meeting was preceded by an altercation between Berlin and Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany at the time, Andrij Melnyk. The outspoken diplomat accused German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of being too close to Moscow, and Scholz of hesitating for too long on delivering weapons to Ukraine.

Steinmeier wanted to visit Kyiv, but his invitation was subsequently canceled. When Scholz called off his own planned visit to Kyiv in response, Melnyk called the chancellor a “beleidigte Leberwurst” (an “offended liver sausage” — a German expression used to describe someone who is childish or easily offended). It took several weeks for things to settle down.

“The relationship has improved considerably,” said Henning Hoff from the German Council on Foreign Relations. The political analyst is sure that the change from Melnyk to the “much calmer, more even-tempered,” ambassador Oleksii Makeiev in October played a part in this.

The change of leadership at the German Defense Ministry from Christine Lambrecht to Boris Pistorius has also improved German-Ukrainian relations. “With Pistorius, there is now a defense minister at work who says very clearly that his goal is a victory for Ukraine,” said Hoff. Pistorius also ensured a “smooth and timely” delivery of German Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine, he added. “That is an entirely different tone, a totally different approach.”

Weapons, weapons, weapons

When he comes to Berlin, despite the recent security leak that jeopardized plans, Zelenskyy is expected to repeat his requests for more and better weapons from Germany — also more ammunition, which has become one of his key issues.

Germany waited months before it approved sending heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery to Ukraine. Deliveries of fighter jets, however, have so far been ruled out by Scholz.

Zelenskyy knows that support from the West has its limits. The length of time since the last successful Ukrainian military operations from August to November, and the tank deliveries which were laboriously wrested from its Western allies, have piled the pressure on Kyiv. “We need success,” the president admitted recently.

Wolfgang Ischinger, a former German ambassador to the United States and organizer of the Munich Security Conference, was skeptical in a recent interview with German public broadcaster ARD. “It is wrong to think that Ukrainian forces will suddenly retake the country in a walkover victory,” he said, adding that it isn’t a matter of days but rather a long-term process. “In Russia, people will assume that they can withstand this. It is far from over.”

No promises on EU, NATO membership

Another thing Zelenskyy wants from the German government is more support for his country’s bids to join NATO and the European Union.

Last June, Ukraine was officially granted candidate status to one day join the EU. On her fifth visit to Kyiv on May 9, to mark Europe Day, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that “Ukraine belongs in the European family.” Kind words, but Zelenskyy can’t do much with them.

One problem is Ukraine’s grain exports. Farmers in eastern EU countries such as Poland or Bulgaria view the lower-priced Ukrainian agricultural products as a threat to their livelihoods — and their governments have introduced bans.

“It will not happen as quickly as Kyiv wants it to,” said Hoff of the outlook for Ukraine’s EU accession.

“Joining NATO is even more complicated,” he added. In September, Ukraine submitted an application for fast-track membership in the security alliance. A few days ago, during a visit to The Hague, Zelenskyy said: “During the war, we want to get a very clear message that we will be in NATO after the war.”

So far, he has yet to receive that clear message. There have been some encouraging statements from individual NATO member countries and from Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, along the lines of “the door remains open.” But there has been nothing concrete, and no timeline has been announced.

Hoff believes the German government doesn’t consider NATO membership for Ukraine to be a good idea. “The idea is, rather, to ensure that Ukrainian security is guaranteed by issuing security guarantees. But it is unclear what exactly that should look like,” he said.

Charlemagne Prize for the Ukrainian people

During his visit to Germany, Zelenskyy is set to receive the 2023 Charlemagne Prize for himself and the Ukrainian people. The prize, which is handed out each year in the German city of Aachen, is considered one of Europe’s most important honors. Since 1950, it has been awarded to people who have worked in the service of European unification.

“I think he is a very worthy recipient because he has reminded us all of what is at stake and what needs to be defended,” said Hoff.

“The desire of Ukrainians to belong to the EU has shown us in Europe once again how important the project of European integration is.”

Source: Deutsche Welle

The Dow Jones and the S and P 500 closed lower Friday to post losses for the second consecutive week. The Dow decreased almost nine points, or 0.03%, to finish the day at 33,300. The blue-chip index saw a weekly loss of 1.1%. The S and P 500 shed six points, or 0.16%, to end the last trading day of the week at 4,124. The index recorded a weekly decline of 0.9%. The Nasdaq declined 43 points, or 0.35%, to close the session at 12,284. However, the tech-heavy index managed to post a gain of 0.4%. The losses in exchanges came after US consumer sentiment declined in May amid concerns about the economy, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer survey preliminary results released earlier. “Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% amid renewed concerns about the trajectory of the economy, erasing over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June,” Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu said in a statement. Due to economic concerns, the VIX volatility index, also known as the fear index, rose 0.6% to 17.03. The 10-year US Treasury yield, meanwhile, jumped 2% to 3.464%. The dollar index was up 0.6% to 102.69, while the euro decreased 0.6% to $1.0850 against the greenback. Precious metals were in negative territory, with the price of gold losing 0.2% to $2,010 per ounce and silver diving 0.9% to $23.96 an ounce. Crude oil prices fell around 1% with the global benchmark Brent crude price at $74.22 per barrel and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude price at $70.09.

Source: Anadolu Agency

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace will press ahead with plans to reduce the size of the British Army despite the consequences of the Ukraine conflict and increased military spending by the government, The Times reported on Friday, citing sources.

In 2021, the Defense Ministry announced plans to decrease the number of troops from 82,000 to just over 70,000, while cutting the number of tanks from 227 to 148. However, due to the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev, the idea of downsizing has made many UK MPs and military commanders uneasy, with Patrick Sanders, the head of the army, calling it “perverse” in the context of a major conflict in Europe.

Despite these concerns, and with the UK’s NATO allies scrambling to boost their militaries, British ministers are said to believe that London “is not under significant pressure to change course.” The matter is expected to be addressed in a defense command paper scheduled for release in June.

The UK government still plans to reduce the number of infantry personnel in favor of artillery, according to Times.

“We have too much infantry – a legacy of the counter-insurgency wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. We need more artillery. The jury is out on whether you need main battle tanks,” a government source told the outlet.

Another army source told The Times that “the main lesson from Ukraine is you need mass,” adding that “the truth is we don’t have enough infantry and we don’t have enough artillery.”

In March, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the defense budget would swell by £5 billion ($6.2 billion) over the next two years, with additional funds meant to both replenish stocks of arms sent to Ukraine and modernize the nuclear arsenal.

This comes amid warnings that the UK would not be up to the task if it had to fight with a near-peer adversary. Wallace himself said in January that the army is “hollowed out and underfunded.” In February, retired General Richard Barrons said in an op-ed for The Sun that the UK could run out of ammo within hours in case of a major conflict. He added that the British military cannot currently be regarded as a ‘top tier’ NATO force.

Amid the Ukraine conflict, numerous Western countries, including Germany, France, and Poland, have boosted their military budgets, with total military expenditure in Europe seeing the steepest year-on-year increase in at least 30 years, according to the Stockholm International Peace Institute.

Source: Russia Today

Cypriots appear largely dissatisfied by the functioning of the country’s public administration, and believe that the way forward goes through the reduction of bureaucracy, better skills for civil servants and more communication with citizens, according to the findings of a flash Eurobarometer survey on how EU citizens perceive the support provided to member states through the European Commission’s Technical Support Instrument (TSI). Cypriot citizens also call for better interaction with public administration, as well as more user friendly digital services. Respondents expect the EU to help Cyprus to conduct reforms through the TSI by providing financial and technical support. In a separate question, Cypriots said that reforms are primarily needed in education, public health and family, housing and social protection. The flash Eurobarometer was conducted between 3 April and 18 April 2023 through phone interviews. 25,631 respondents from the 27 EU Member States (504 from Cyprus) were interviewed. Through the TSI, the EU provides expertise and technical support, enables and fosters exchanges of information among countries, and develops capacity in public administrations, as noted in a press release. ‘I am particularly happy to see that fostering the exchange of good practices among Member States is considered the most important action for the EU’ Commissioner for Cohesion and Reforms, Elisa Ferreira, said in a statement, pointing out that this is exactly the role played by TSI. – Call for reduced bureaucracy Cypriots tend to be less satisfied with the functioning of the public administration than the average EU citizen. In particular, 67% consider that the public administration is slow in providing services (47% in the EU) and 38% said that public administration is not close to the citizens (29% in the EU). At the same time, 38% of Cypriots believe that public administration employees are under-skilled, compared to 22% in the EU. In response to a question on which improvements would increase their trust in public administration, the top three solutions chosen by Cypriots were reducing bureaucracy (62% in Cyprus, 52% in the EU), better skilled civil servants (48% in Cyprus, 30% in the EU) and more communication with citizens (43% in Cyprus, 31% in the EU). The top priority for citizens on the EU level was the reduction bureaucracy, as in Cyprus. However, their second option was transparency about decisions and the use of public funds (44% in the EU, 37% in Cyprus). The third option was, as in Cyprus, more communication with citizens. As to what specific measures could improve citizens’ interaction with public administration, 63% of Cypriots (35% in the EU) asked for increased user frendliness of digital services, 57% (49% in the EU – the highest percentage in the EU) believe that there should be more channels to directly contact the administration, including in person, and 45% (46% in the EU) want clearer information about procedures. Also, compared to the EU average, more Cypriots underlined the need for more digital services (43% vs. 31%) and for the creation of a central contact point for all requests to the administration (43% vs. 33%). – Cypriots expect financial and technical support for reforms The findings also include citizens’ opinions on how they believe that the EU can help their county design and implement reforms through the TSI: – 55% of Cypriots (34% in the EU) prefer the EU to provide financial support for reforms, – 51% of Cypriots (34% in the EU) ask that the EU bring knowledge and expertise to the design and implementation of reforms, – 43% of Cypriots (42% in the EU) point to Member States sharing best practices, – 40% of Cypriots (31% in the EU) see a role for the EU in efforts to improve the competences and skills in public administration, – 31% of Cypriots (42% in the EU) expect EU to help Member States with dealing with crises (pandemics, natural disasters, conflicts), – 26% of Cypriots (25% in the EU) say that EU level data and statistics can be used to better design reforms and – 23% of Cypriots (21% in the EU) want the EU’s support in terms of analysing the impact of reforms. – Education, health and social protection prioritised Cypriot citizens and EU citizens more broadly believe that reforms or actions are needed to improve institutions, structures or public services in the fields of education, public health and social protection. Being asked to pick up to three different areas, 52% of Cypriots chose education (50% in the EU), 52% chose public health (56% in the EU) and 48% chose family, housing and social protection (35% in the EU). The health sector was a top priority in several EU countries, with 60% or more respondents selecting this answer in 11 out of 27 Member States. Also high up on the priorities of Cypriot citizens were migration (37% in Cyprus, 15% in the EU), green transition and energy supply (28% in Cyprus, 25% in the EU) and employment and working conditions (20% in Cyprus, 25% in the EU). Following with smaller percentages were the financial sector (19% in Cyprus, 10% in the EU), the digitisation of public services (15% in Cyprus, 15% in the EU), support to business (11% in Cyprus, 17% in the EU) and the functioning of public institutions (7% in Cyprus, 15% in the EU).

Source: Cyprus News Agency

On Sunday, both presidential and parliamentary elections are taking place in Türkiye. According to international media reports, the outcomes could mean the end of the Recep Tayyip Erdogan era. Such claims are borne out by opinion polls which show a slight lead for opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. At the same time, experts believe that this time the president’s Justice and Development Party will receive significantly fewer votes than in previous years, leading it to lose control of the parliament.

Is Türkiye in for a change of power and a change in its foreign policy course? What would this mean for Russia and for the world at large?

Balance of power

Three politicians are running for president: the current leader, 69-year-old Erdogan from The People’s Alliance, 74-year-old Kilicdaroglu who represents opposition force The Nation Alliance, and Sinan Ogan, a 55-year-old candidate from ATA Alliance.

If none of the candidates wins over 50% of the vote on Sunday, a run-off will be held on May 28. Most opinion polls suggest this is highly likely.

The main battle is between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, who represents a grouping of six opposition parties. However, it is nearly impossible to predict a victory for either candidate based on opinion polls since the Turkish public does not have a clear-cut favorite.

ADA predicts an Erdogan victory in the first round, with 50.6% of the vote, and estimates his opponent Kilicdaroglu will receive 44.8%. Konda Research sees things differently, predicting 43.7% of the vote for Erdogan and 49.3% for the opposition leader. Media polls predict similar outcomes – a survey by the Hürriyet newspaper predicts victory for Erdogan while the newspaper Duvar favors The Nation Alliance’s man. The only thing that everyone agrees on is that Ogan will struggle to collect more than 5% of the vote.

While Erdogan’s chances of winning the presidential elections are considered high, the parliamentary elections look quite different – the Justice and Development Party is likely to lose its majority.

According to an opinion poll by Motto and Bulgu Research, 34.2% support the president’s party, while 33% back the Republican People’s Party – the country’s largest opposition faction. A total of 32 parties and five alliances will be represented on ballot papers.

Currently, there are three main scenarios of how the Turkish elections may play out, Amur Gajiyev, a researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told RT.

“The first is a positive outcome for Erdogan and his party – both the president and his party win after one or two election rounds,” the expert said. The second scenario assumes that Erdogan wins the presidential elections but his coalition is defeated in the parliament, which will mean a change in the composition of the parliament in favor of the opposition. If things go according to the third scenario, both Erdogan and the ruling coalition will lose.

“Regardless of the consequences of the earthquakes and reports of Erdogan’s poor health, experts believe that the current president will most likely be reelected, but his party will lose influence and will no longer have the same degree of political power. This means that the redistribution of forces in the parliament will not be in favor of the ruling coalition. This scenario may cause a crisis,” the expert believes.

Why are the elections in Türkiye important?

Over recent years, Türkiye’s diplomatic weight has significantly grown. Not only neighboring countries but also other world powers are now obliged to take Ankara’s views into account, Gajiyev notes.

Thanks to its role as practically the only mediator to have responded to the global food crisis – having facilitated the grain deal – Türkiye has gained significant advantages and now openly declares that “the world is bigger than five,” the expert added. This refers to the five permanent members of the UN Security Council – a situation which, as Erdogan often claims, does not reflect today’s global reality.

“Türkiye aims to take part in the global governance system on such a globally high level. This has mostly become possible because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Türkiye’s role in it,” said Gajiyev.

He also noted that Türkiye has become a powerful regional transit hub – not only in terms of energy, but also food, transport, and logistics. This means that it receives huge cash transfers, privileges, and dividends.

However, many do not celebrate the fact that Türkiye is growing stronger, especially considering the personality of its current leader. Over the past year, Erdogan’s intractability became manifest in the admission of NATO members – Ankara is the main opponent to Sweden’s accession to the bloc and has accused Stockholm of supporting terrorism.

For this reason, experts surmise that the West hopes for an opposition victory in Türkiye.

“Kilicdaroglu is more pro-Western than the other candidates,” said Viktor Nadein-Rayevsky, senior researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations in Moscow. He notes that the opposition party intends to return to Atatürkist ideology, which is based on the outlook of the modern country’s founder Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. “The Atatürkists are focused on relations with the West. These ideas, largely abandoned by Erdogan, are now being revived,” the expert said.

Russian International Affairs Council expert Kirill Semenov agrees. He believes that if Kilicdaroglu wins the election, “[he] will work more actively with European states, including NATO, and will share the general views of the alliance.”

“Sweden will join NATO anyway, it’s just a matter of time. Though, perhaps, if Erdogan wins, he may again try to delay this process for personal reasons – for example, because the West and NATO actively supported Kilicdaroglu. Erdogan may try to recoup and put up some obstacles,” Semenov said.

“In any case, Kilicdaroglu’s victory will be beneficial for NATO, since Erdogan’s independent foreign policy, especially within the alliance, is not shared by everyone – definitely not by the opposition,” said Nadein-Rayevsky.

How will the elections in Türkiye affect Russia?

Since Türkiye is currently the only NATO state that can hold a full-fledged dialogue with Russia, the outcome of the elections will also influence Moscow’s discourse with the bloc’s members, according to Gajiyev.

If Erdogan wins, Türkiye’s relations with Russia, including energy and military cooperation, will remain a priority. Nadein-Rayevsky believes this is Erdogan’s great advantage. However, a victory by the pro-Western opposition would not mean an instant decline in relations between Ankara and Moscow, since giving up all the perks that Türkiye receives from its relations with Russia would be “at the very least huge foolishness in regard to foreign policy” Gajiyev points out.

“I don’t think even the opposition would do that, not to mention Erdogan. It seems to me that Russian-Ukrainian relations won’t take any sharp turns, especially if Erdogan stays in power,” the expert said.

As of now, the opposition also speaks from a pro-Russian perspective. In its election manifesto in January, The Nation Alliance promised to strengthen ties with Russia through balanced and constructive dialogue at the institutional level.

“We will foster relations with Russia at the institutional, not leadership level as it is happening now under Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party. We will maintain relations at the level of institutions and the Foreign Ministry,” Unal Cevikoz, the party’s deputy chairman for foreign relations, told RIA Novosti.

He noted that regarding relations with Moscow, the opposition will take into account both the longstanding historical relations between the two countries, and Türkiye’s NATO membership. He also noted that Ankara will continue being a mediator between Russia and Ukraine.

Addressing an expert meeting in Moscow, Kilicdaroglu named the end of the Ukrainian conflict and the continuation of the grain deal as his priority if he wins on May 14. He also noted that healthy relations with Russia are in the interests of Türkiye.

“I would like to comment on media reports saying that Turkish-Russian relations will take a different course during my presidency and the coming to power of The Nation Alliance. Our government will always defend the interests of Türkiye. And it is in Türkiye’s interests to keep Turkish-Russian relations healthy and dignified,” he said.

Kilicdaroglu’s statements indicate that he does not approve of anti-Russian views. “How will our government develop Turkish-Russian relations? With predictability, dignity, and respect,” Kilicdaroglu said.

He described cooperation between Türkiye and Russia as an essential part of regional stability and expressed confidence that the two countries will be able to strengthen and develop cooperation in many areas, especially in the fight against terrorism.

The opposition candidate also recalled the Russian Su-24 fighter jet which Türkiye shot down in 2015, and the shocking murder of Russian Ambassador Andrey Karlov in Ankara in 2016. As Kilicdaroglu noted, these events demonstrate the fragile state of Turkish-Russian relations, which are prone to crises because the current Turkish administration “is guided by personal interests, and ignores principles and institutions.”

“Türkiye’s poor leadership and unpredictability also negatively affect economic relations between us. Even with the volume of our trade reaching $70 billion, there is a significant deficit that is detrimental to our country. It is quite possible to change this and stabilize our economic relations by finding a mutually beneficial balance,” Kilicdaroglu said.

As Semenov noted in a conversation with RT, the opposition candidate’s pro-Western course does not mean that the Russian-Turkish agreements concluded under Erdogan will be undone.

“This cooperation is beneficial for Türkiye and in some aspects it will certainly be preserved. But stricter measures may also be imposed. For example, Türkiye may provide more military aid to Kiev and may heed those who want it to cease being a hub for evading anti-Russian sanctions. But Ankara itself isn’t likely to impose sanctions against Russia, even if Kilicdaroglu comes to power,” the expert said.

Source: Russia Today

A helicopter crashes in Russia’s Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, while a fighter jet reportedly comes down in the same area. The Russian city of Lugansk is shelled by Ukrainian forces, following two missile attacks on Friday that left 6 children wounded there. Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy faces a new trial over allegations of receiving campaign funds from Libya, with links to its former leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Source: Russia Today

The FBI has raided an apartment at the Trump Towers complex in Sunny Isles Beach, a Miami suburb nicknamed ‘Little Moscow,’ the Miami Herald reported on Saturday. The unit’s ownership by a Russian shell company has triggered fervent speculation on social media regarding potential links to former US President Donald Trump.

A team of FBI agents and local police descended on unit 4102 in the Trump Tower III building on Collins Avenue on Thursday for reasons that have not yet been made public. Video obtained by the Herald shows three agents walking around inside the apartment. An FBI spokesman would only acknowledge that the agency “was conducting court-ordered law enforcement activity in the vicinity of that location.”

The luxury high-rise unit has been owned by MIC-USA LLC, a shell company controlled by Russian businesspeople Oleg Patsulya and Agunda Makeeva for over a decade, according to Miami-Dade County property records. The pair were sued for allegedly defaulting on their mortgage in 2020 but the suit was quickly settled.

FBI raided a Russian-owned condo in Trump TowersA Russian agent posing as a Rothschild heiress infiltrated Mar-a-LagoDeutsche Bank laundered Russian money for TrumpEric Trump bragged they had all the money they needed from RussiaI’m sure this is all just a coincidence ??

“FBI agents just raided a Florida condo in Trump Towers that’s owned by Russians. I’m starting to think that the whole Russia thing wasn’t a hoax after all,” one user mused, while another gloated that “President Obama, Hillary Clinton, Hunter Biden, and many other Americans not cavorting with Russians” didn’t have the “problem” of FBI agents raiding their properties.

The Trump Towers complex is neither owned nor operated by the Republican presidential candidate, who merely licensed his name to the owners as he has to dozens of similar complexes around the world. Nor is the Russian ownership of the apartment unusual for the area – Sunny Isles Beach acquired the name ‘Little Moscow’ due to its large Russian population.

Better-informed Twitter users, pointing to several companies registered stateside in Patsulya’s name, predicted the raid was related to a case of sanctions violations. Indeed, Russian expats living in the area have reportedly expressed fears of having their properties seized by US law enforcement since Moscow began its military operation in Ukraine last year.

Patsulya’s wife, reached by the Miami Herald, claimed to have “no idea” what the raid was “about,” acknowledging she had been advised by the family lawyer to remain silent.

Source: Russia Today

French drinks company Pernod Ricard, the owner of Absolut vodka and Jameson whisky brands, has halted all exports to Russia, the company said in a statement on its website on Friday.

According to the statement, the company plans to run down existing inventories and then completely stop the distribution of its brands in Russia over the coming months.

“Pernod Ricard can confirm that it has stopped all exports of its international brands to Russia at the end of April 2023. We will also cease the distribution of our portfolio in Russia, a process that we anticipate will take some months to complete,” the statement read.

The company noted that it is currently “assessing how to adapt its local organization” in light of its decision, and pledged to continue to support local employees during the exit process. A spokesperson for Pernod Ricard told Just Drinks news outlet that the company has around 300 employees in Russia. He noted that the company plans to retain a small presence in the country so it can resume exports in the future “when the circumstances will be okay.”

Along with several other Western drinks companies, Pernod Ricard suspended exports to Russia in March 2022 after a number of Western states placed sanctions on the country in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.

However, the French group resumed deliveries of some of its brands to the country when stocks began to run low late last year, and restarted exports of its Swedish brand Absolut last month. The company said the decision was necessary to protect its local staff from accusations of intentional bankruptcy, which is a criminal offence in Russia.

It was since forced to stop Absolut exports, however, following an outcry in Sweden and threats to boycott Pernod Ricard products.

Source: Russia Today