UCy Economic Research Centre sees signs of reversal of CCLEI’s downward trend

The Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus sees signs of a reversal of the downtrend of the Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI), which in January 2023 recorded an annual decrease of 3.5%, after annual decreases of 3.6% in December and 4.2% in November 2022.

According to the Economics Research Centre, the international Brent Crude oil price was among the contributors of the CCLEI’s improvement, recording a decline in its year-over-year growth rate for the first time since January 2021.

Also, the contribution of the passenger traffic of January 2023 to Cyprus is noteworthy, which surpassed the 2019 record, and the expected passenger arrivals of the following months indicate the overall strengthening of the tourism sector in Cyprus in 2023.

In addition, the acceleration recorded in the growth rate of the remaining domestic components of the CCLEI further reinforces the improved path of the Index. On the contrary, the Economic Sentiment Indicators in the euro area and in Cyprus continue to restrain the upward trend of the Index.

The Economics Research Centre concludes that the improved but negative CCLEI growth rate in January 2023 is in line with economic forecasts for 2023, according to which Cyprus is expected to record a significant slowdown, compared to 2022, but will not enter into a recession phase.

The CCLEI for January 2023 is estimated based on the availability of the Brent Crude oil price, the Economic Sentiment Indicators in the euro area and in Cyprus, the total number of property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, as well as the high frequency data of the passenger arrivals and the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production, while the retail sales volume is estimated based on the latest available information in a series of various economic indicators.

Source: Cyprus News Agency