Category: Market

ANKARA: Germany’s economic morale this month rose to its highest level since February 2022, according to data released on Tuesday.

The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany this month surged 11.2 points month-on-month to 42.9 in April, beating market forecasts.

“A recovering global economy is boosting expectations for Germany, with half of the respondents anticipating the country’s economy to pick up over the next six months,” said ZEW head Achim Wambach.

This upbeat mood stemmed from a much-improved assessment of the economic situation and expectations for its top export destinations, besides the strengthening of the dollar and euro, said Wambach.

The ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for the euro area increased 6 points from a month ago to 48.8 in April.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday warned about financial fragilities in the global economy before central banks start easing monetary policies.

The financial agency said investors and central banks are expecting monetary policies to ease in the coming quarters, as rate hikes in the last two years have created conditions to bring inflation back to central banks’ targets.

“So far, cracks in the financial system-unmasked by high interest rates during the monetary tightening cycle-have not ruptured further,” the IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report for April 2024. “The last mile of disinflation, however, may be complicated by several salient near-term financial fragilities.”

Some of the near-term risks include a decline in commercial real estate prices, a decrease in real house prices that has been driven by higher mortgage rates and some sizable inflation surprises that could abruptly change investor sentiment.

Medium-term risks include rising public and private debt in
advanced economies and emerging markets, eroding cash liquidity buffers for firms and a downturn in China’s housing market where policies are critical to restoring confidence in the countries’ real estate sector, according to the agency.

The IMF said central banks should avoid premature monetary easing and appropriately push back against overly optimistic market expectations for interest rate cuts that could add to the easing of financial conditions and complicate the last mile of disinflation.

“Where progress on disinflation is enough to suggest that inflation is moving sustainably toward the target, central banks should gradually move to a more neutral stance of policy,” it said.

“Supervisory and regulatory authorities should use appropriate tools, including stress tests and early corrective action, to ensure that banks and nonbank financial institutions are resilient to strains in commercial and residential real estate and to the credit cycle downturn,” it added.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was down 4.5% on Tuesday, as investors are worried about the escalation of Iran’s attack on Israel.

The value of the market was at $2.29 trillion at 10.20 a.m. EDT, according to data from CoinMarketCap, a digital asset price-tracking website.

Bitcoin fell almost 3.9% to $62,960, while the world’s largest cryptocurrency saw its price dive to below 62,000 again after Saturday.

Bitcoin’s price plummeted to as low as $60,725 on Saturday when Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles at Israel in response to an April 1 attack on the Iranian Consulate in Syria, where at least 13 people were killed, including seven military advisers.

Ethereum, the world’s biggest altcoin by market cap, was down 3.7% to $3,074 at 10.23 a.m. EDT.

Some altcoins saw their daily prices plummet as much as 16%.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: The Dow Jones closed lower Monday for the sixth consecutive trading day, recording its longest losing streak since last June.

The blue-chip index declined 248 points, or 0.65%, to finish the day at 37,735. The S and P 500 fell 61 points, or 1.2%, to 5,061.

The Nasdaq plummeted 290 points, or 1.79%, to end the session at 15,885.

The VIX volatility index, also known as the fear index, soared 11.1% to 19.23. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 2.46% to 4.610%.

The US dollar index climbed 0.16% to 106.20, while the euro gained 0.02% to $1.0625 against the greenback.

Precious metals were on the rise, with gold adding 1.6% to $2,383 per ounce and silver rising 3.5% to $28.87.

Oil prices were flat with global benchmark Brent crude at $90.38 per barrel and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate at $85.65.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday revised its global economic growth forecast for 2024 upwards to 3.2%, 0.1 percentage point higher than an earlier estimate from January.

Advanced economies are projected to expand 1.7% this year, according to its World Economic Outlook April report. The figure is a 0.2 percentage point upgrade from the January estimate of 1.5%.

“The pace of expansion is low by historical standards, owing to both near-term factors, such as still-high borrowing costs and withdrawal of fiscal support, and longer-term effects from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; weak growth in productivity; and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation,” said the report.

The latest forecast for global economic growth five years from now on is at 3.1% – its lowest in decades, according to the financial agency.

The IMF warned that “geoeconomic fragmentation could intensify with higher barriers to the flow of goods, capital, and people implying a supply-side slowdown.”

Amon
g advanced economies, the US economy is expected to grow 2.7% in 2024, up 0.6 percentage points from 2.1%.

The euro area’s growth forecast, however, was revised down to 0.8%, from 0.9%. Both growth estimates for Germany and France were revised down by 0.3 percentage points each, as they are expected to grow 0.2% and 0.7% this year, respectively.

Emerging market and developing economies’ growth estimate was revised up 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% from 4.1%.

While China’s growth forecast for 2024 was kept unchanged at 4.6%, India’s estimate was revised up 0.3 percentage points to 6.8%, and Russia’s was moved up 0.6 percentage points to 3.2%.

“In Trkiye, growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025, with economic activity strengthening in the second half of 2024 as monetary tightening ends and consumption starts to recover,” said the report.

Vigilance on inflation

“On a year-over-year basis, global growth bottomed out at the end of 2022, at 2.3 percent, shortly after median headline
inflation peaked at 9.4 percent,” said the report.

Global headline inflation is projected to fall from an annual average of 6.8% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025, while advanced economies are expected to return to their inflation targets sooner than emerging market and developing economies, according to the IMF.

“While inflation trends are encouraging, we are not there yet. Somewhat worryingly, the most recent median headline and core inflation numbers are pushing upward. This could be temporary, but there are reasons to remain vigilant. Most of the progress on inflation came from the decline in energy prices and goods inflation below its historical average,” said the report.

“But services inflation remains high – sometimes stubbornly so – and could derail the disinflation path. Bringing inflation down to target remains the priority,” it added.

The IMF warned that real interest rates have increased even as inflation recedes, and sovereign debt dynamics have become less favorable, especially for hi
ghly indebted emerging markets, and advised that countries rebuild their fiscal buffers.

“As inflation converges toward target levels and central banks pivot toward policy easing in many economies, a tightening of fiscal policies aimed at curbing high government debt, with higher taxes and lower government spending, is expected to weigh on growth,” said the report.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: The Dow Jones opened higher on Tuesday, trying to recover from its longest losing streak since last June.

The blue-chip index rose 112 points, or 0.3%, to 37,847 at 9.42 a.m. EDT (1342GMT). The index lost 248 points, or 0.65%, on Tuesday to record losses for the sixth consecutive trading day.

The S and P 500, on the other hand, was down 10 points, or 0.2%, to 5,051. The Nasdaq declined 34 points, or 0.22%, to 15,850.

The VIX volatility index, also known as the fear index, rose 0.36% to 19.36. The 10-year US Treasury yield added 1.1% to 4.681%.

The US dollar index climbed 0.04% to 106.25, while the euro gained 0.15% to $1.0638 against the greenback.

Precious metals were in the red, with gold losing 0.37% to $2,374 per ounce and silver plummeting 2.33% to $28.20.

Oil prices were mixed, with global benchmark Brent crude trimming 0.1% to $90.02 per barrel but US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rising 0.08% to $85.48.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: Bank of America saw income and revenue decline in the first quarter, according to a financial results statement released Tuesday.

The US-based multinational investment bank and financial services holding company posted a net income of $6.7 billion in the January – March period of this year, which was down 18.3% from $8.2 billion in the same period last year.

Total revenue fell 1.9% to $25.8 billion from $26.3 billion during the same period, according to the figures.

The bank’s stock price was up around 1.5% to $36.50 in pre-market trading on the New York Stock Exchange, from the previous day’s close of $35.95.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: In their joint federal income tax return for 2023 filed this month, US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden reported federal adjusted gross income of $619,976, according to a statement by the White House late Monday.

Under an effective federal income tax rate of 23.7%, the couple paid $146,629 in federal income taxes, it added.

The president and first lady also released their income tax return for the northeastern state of Delaware, where they claim residence and paid $30,908 in Delaware income tax.

The first lady, in addition, released her income tax return for the state of Virginia and reported paying $3,549 in Virginia income tax.

“The President and First Lady also reported contributions of $20,477 to 17 different charities. Among those gifts to charity was a $5,000 contribution to the Beau Biden Foundation, a public charity dedicated to ensuring that all children are free from the threat of abuse,” said the statement, referring to a group named after the first couple’s oldest son, w
ho died of brain cancer in 2015.

“President Biden believes that all occupants of the Oval Office should be open and honest with the American people, and that the longstanding tradition of annually releasing presidential tax returns should continue unbroken,” it added.

During his time at the White House, former President Donald Trump bucked tradition by refusing to release his tax returns. As he works to defeat Biden this fall and return to the presidency, Trump has maintained his stance by not releasing his latest tax filing.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: The Spring Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) kicked off in the US capital Washington, DC on Monday.

The meetings will bring together central bank officials, ministers of finance and development, parliament members, private sector executives, representatives from civil society organizations and academics around the world, according to a joint statement.

They will discuss issues of global concern, such as the world economic outlook, poverty eradication, economic development, and aid effectiveness, it added.

While main ministerial meetings and events will take place April 17-19, other events and activities will be taking place through April 15-20.

Trkiye will be represented by Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Governor of Turkish Central Bank Fatih Karahan who will join some events as speakers.

Source: Anadolu Agency

ISTANBUL: Canada’s consumer inflation annually came in at 2.9% in March, up from a 2.8% year-on-year gain in February, the country’s statistical authority said Tuesday.

The figure, however, reflects a significant slowdown since the 8.1% annual gain recorded in June 2022 – its highest level in 39 years.

“Gasoline prices contributed the most to the year-over-year headline acceleration, as prices at the pump rose faster in March compared with February,” Statistics Canada said in a statement.

“Shelter prices continued to apply upward pressure in March, with the mortgage interest cost and rent indexes contributing the most to the year-over-year gain in the all-items CPI,” it added.

Statistics Canada said shelter prices increased 6.5% year-on-year in March, rising at the same rate as in February.

“The mortgage interest cost index rose 25.4% on a year-over-year basis in March, following a 26.3% increase in February,” it said. Rent prices continued to climb in March, rising 8.5% year over year, following an 8.2%
increase in February.”

Gasoline prices annually increased 4.5% in March, following a 0.8% year-on-year gain in February, according to the agency.

“Higher global prices for crude oil stemmed from supply concerns amid geopolitical conflict and continued voluntary production cuts, leading to higher prices at the pump,” said the statement.

On a monthly basis, the consumer price index was at 0.6% in March, following a monthly gain of 0.3% in February.

Source: Anadolu Agency