The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year decrease of 0.6% in June 2022, after year-over-year increases of 1.4% in May and 3.9% in April 2022, based on the recent and revised data, according to the Economic Research Centre of the University of Cyprus.
According to the press release, the effects of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the resurgence of the pandemic, and the recent extreme restrictive measures in China are reflected in the negative year-over-year growth rate of CCLEI in June 2022.
In particular, the international Brent Crude oil price hit a new high record in June 2022. At the same time, the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) in the euro area and Cyprus, which worsened in June 2022 compared to June last year, also contribute to the negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI. The deterioration of the ESI is attributed to the sentiment downturn in all sectors, and especially, in that of consumption.
Moreover, a negative input to the year-over-year growth rate of CCLEI is also the temperature adjusted volume of electricity production, which worsened in June 2022 compared to June 2021.
In contrast, most of the CCLEI’s domestic components contribute to the restraint of the CCLEI’s drop, recording an acceleration in their growth rate in June 2022 compared to the corresponding month of last year.
More specifically, the growth rate of total property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, as well as according to preliminary data, the growth rate of tourists’ arrivals and retail sales volume, have accelerated.
The Economic Research Centre notes that the CCLEI for June 2022 is estimated based on the availability of the Brent Crude oil price, the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) in the euro area and in Cyprus, the total number of property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, as well as the high frequency data of the passengers’ arrivals and the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production in June, while the retail sales volume is estimated based on the latest available information in a series of various economic indicators.
Source: Cyprus News Agency