Netanyahu’s Strategic Maneuvering Elevates Tensions with Trkiye Amidst Israeli Elections

Tel aviv: The already tense relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara hit a new low earlier this week when Israel attacked the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase in Syria's Idlib province. The aerial strikes resulted in no casualties, even though they reduced the runway and storage facilities to rubble. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed the strike stopped Syria from allowing Turkish troops to deploy at the base, asserting that such a move would breach the security status quo. Netanyahu also warned Trkiye against a military buildup that "descends south because it threatens us." According to TRTworld.com, Trkiye strongly condemned the attack, stating that Israel continues to target Syria's infrastructure and capabilities while undermining the country's territorial integrity and unity. Ankara also called on the international community to adopt a more resolute stance to end Israel's aggression against Syria. Washington joined Trkiye in criticizing the attacks, with US envoy to Syria Tom Barr ack describing the Israeli attacks as an "unnecessary escalation that hurt regional stability." Experts say Israeli aggression in Syria is a calculated attempt by Netanyahu to invent a Turkish security threat for domestic political gain. Israel will hold elections in October, and already the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, Netanyahu is fighting for his political survival-a fact reflected by his poor showing in pre-election public polls. Israel's rhetoric and actions risk broader confrontation with Ankara, a NATO member, that possesses military capabilities far superior to those of the rest of regional actors, analysts say. Gokhan Batu, a Levant studies analyst at the Ankara-based Centre for Middle Eastern Studies, tells TRT World that Netanyahu has mounted an open challenge to Trkiye's influence by attacking the Abu al-Duhur Military Airbase. He says that the region and wider world are going through a period of transition amid Washington's reluctance to remain the sole security provider. Analysts say Netanyahu's multiple wars across the region are part of a well-thought-out plan to bolster his chances of winning the forthcoming national elections that he is widely expected to lose. Former Israeli premier Ehud Barak called out Netanyahu for deliberate escalation of tensions with Trkiye, calling the move "reckless and stupid." It strongly reeks of a political motive to go into elections with a string of security tensions that would "fuel public anxiety," Barak was quoted as saying. Similarly, opposition leader Yair Golan criticized Netanyahu for his "provocative and dangerous decision to hit Syria." "Military force is once again being used for political considerations," he said, while calling Netanyahu an extremist and unreliable politician. Coming shortly after the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement-a pact between Trkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan based on collective deterrence-the timing of the Israeli strikes is significant, according to Batu. Israel wants to signal that the (Mecca) agreement will not deter it, he says. Tel Aviv is deeply unhappy that Saudi Arabia, with which Israel has sought to normalize relations for many years, has also joined the alliance. Trkiye has long maintained a military presence in Syria. In northern Syria, Trkiye has carried out a series of successful anti-terror operations since 2016 to prevent the establishment of a terror corridor and ensure the peaceful settlement of residents. Since the December 2024 revolution that toppled the dictatorial Assad regime, the situation in Syria has developed in a direction very different from what Israel envisaged, Batu says. Israeli strikes in Syria have also become a reputational problem for Trkiye, Batu says. So far, Ankara has reacted with restraint. But it may become increasingly difficult for Ankara to maintain its restraint in response to continued Israeli aggression, Batu says. Selcuk Aydin, an assistant professor at Bogazici University, says Israel's growing anti-Trkiye stance is clearly an attempt to shore up electoral support ahead of October elections. "Israel's anti-Trkiye rhetoric traces back very much to the Israeli election process," he tells TRT World. According to Batu, the Abu al-Duhur strikes have fueled claims that the operation was partly intended to boost Netanyahu's popularity and capitalize on public security concerns ahead of the election. But given Trkiye's military capabilities, what began as an electoral maneuver by Netanyahu could turn into political suicide, he warns. "Trkiye is simply not a country against which military risks can safely be taken for electoral gain. The stakes are too high," he says.