The Cyprus Composite Leading Economic Index (CCLEI) recorded a year-over-year decrease of 2.4% in July 2, 2022 following the year-over-year decrease of 1.5% recorded in June 2022, based on the recent and revised data.
According to Economics Research Centre of the University of Cyprus, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, the high inflation, and the growing uncertainty, are reflected in the negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in July 2022.
More specifically, the Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESI) in the euro area and Cyprus worsened in July 2022 compared to July last year, with the climate weakening mainly in the consumption sector. At the same time, the international Brent Crude oil price which remained at high levels in July 2022, also contributed to the negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI. The impact of high energy costs is also reflected in the temperature-adjusted volume of electricity production, which worsened in July 2022 compared to July 2021, contributing also to the negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI.
In contrast, most of the CCLEI’s domestic components contribute to the restraint of the CCLEI’s drop – and therefore to the rise of the Cypriot economy, recording an acceleration in their growth rate in July 2022 compared to the corresponding month in the previous year, despite the difficult international economic climate.
In particular, the growth rate of total property sales contracts, the value of credit card transactions, the growth rate of tourists’ arrivals, as well as according to preliminary data, retail sales volume, have accelerated.
In summary, the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and all its related implications continue to burden the growth prospects of the international and, by extension, the Cypriot economy – a fact indicated by the negative year-over-year growth rate of the CCLEI in July 2022.
Source: Cyprus News Agency